Majority of voters in Madina constituency think the country is heading in a wrong direction

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This is the first opinion poll carried out between 9th – 21st May 2019 by Global InfoAnalytics Limited, an independent private market research company in Ghana, in their constituency public polling series.

The Madina constituency is the first constituency to be observed in this series. The polling results from the constituency generally suggests that the President and ruling government may be heading for a difficult time in the coming 2020 elections if things remain the same.  

Survey Methodology

Sample size was selected using a sample calculator at 95% confidence level with a sampling error for total respondents of ±5%. A sample size of 382 was selected based on the voter population of the constituency and survey was conducted via face-to-face interview with respondents within the constituency. The sample size was then allocated through a quota system to each electoral area within the constituency based on their voter population. Surveys were conducted using a sophisticated App which enables Global InfoAnalytics to track live the GPS location of interviewers, date and time of the interview for quality control purposes.

Below are summaries of the results. 

Direction of the Country 

70.4% of respondents were of the view that the country is heading in the wrong direction compared to 29.6% who were of the view that it is heading in the right direction.

Job Approval 

When voters were asked if they approve or disapprove of the job Nana Akufo-Addo is doing as president, only 27.2% said they approve of his performance whilst 46.9% said they disapprove and 25.9% had no opinion on his performance, resulting in a net favourability of -19.7%.

Whilst the President is struggling in the constituency, the Member of Parliament is faring worse with only 20.2% approval and 53.1% disapproval, resulting in a net favourability of -32.9%. 

Voting Intentions

  1. The poll shows that less than a third of voters in the constituency will definitely or probably vote to re-elect Nana Akuffo Addo come December 2020. Respondents were asked, “Would you vote to re-elect Nana Addo as President if the 2020 Presidential Elections were held today?” Responding to this question, approximately 27.7% of respondents indicated that they will definitely or probably vote to re-elect Nana Akuffo Addo, whilst 56.8% said they will definitely or probably vote for someone else. 10.7% of voters had no opinion and only 4.7% said they will not vote at all.

Specific responses are shown in the chart below:

However, when responses from likely voters (voters who said they will vote come 2020) are considered, the results show that approximately 61.7% indicate that they will definitely or probably vote for someone else, compared to 56.8% of all voters.  Approximately 29.8% indicated that they will definitely or probably vote for Nana Akufo-Addo compared to 27.7 of all voters, a slight improvement of 2.1% for all voters. Approximately 8.2% of likely voters are undecided (will not vote accounts for only 0.3%).

Results 

In the 2016 presidential election, Nana Addo won the Madina constituency by a margin of 1.2%, a margin which qualify the constituency to be classified as a battleground constituency by Global InfoAnalytics for the purposes of tracking poll.

Almost two and a half years into Nana Akufo Addo’s presidency, a survey of voters carried out in the constituency in May 2019 reveals that there are difficult times ahead for the President and the ruling party come December 2020.

Survey Demography

The survey interviewed 208 female respondents and 174 males, approximately representing 54% and 46% respectively.

Approximately 56.3% of the voters in the constituency are below the age of 40 and 17.3% are over 50 years.

Approximately 82% of voters who took part in the poll had a minimum of Junior High School education.

Approximately 58% of the respondents were employed and 28% were unemployed. Students accounted for approximately 11% whilst pensioners were only 3%.

Registered Voters 

Approximately 91% of the respondents are registered to vote in the 2020 elections.

Voter Turnout

On whether the respondents were eager to cast a vote in the 2020 elections, 43.5% said they are absolutely certain that they will vote whilst 26.2% indicated that they are very likely to vote. Thus, approximately 70% of the respondents are very likely to vote in 2020 elections. Of those surveyed, 20.9% indicated that their chances of voting are 50-50, whilst 9.4% of the respondents indicated that they are unlikely to vote in 2020 elections.

Approval ratings of likely voters (voters definitely or very likely to go to the polls)

When preferences of voters who are definitely or very likely to go to the polls were considered, 55% disapprove of the president’s job performance as compared to approval rating of 23%, whilst 22% said they don’t have an opinion on his performance.

Voting Preferences of likely voters

On the question of whether they will vote to re-elect Nana Akufo Addo as president come December 2020, approximately 62% said they will definitely or probably vote for someone else, 30% said they will definitely or probably vote for Nana Akufo Addo and 8% are undecided.

Voting Responses by Employment Status

  1. *When responses of voters based on their employment status was considered for their voting preferences, among the respondents who said they will definitely vote for Nana Akufo Addo, 6.35% were students, 1.59% were pensioners, 63.49% were employed and 28.57% were unemployed. 
  2. *Among those who indicated that they will probably vote for Nana Akufo Addo, 4.65% were students, 2.33% were pensioners, 69.77% were employed and 23.26% were unemployed.
  3. *Among those who indicated that they will definitely vote for someone else, 10.24% were students, 3.94% were pensioners, 55.91% were employed and 29.92% were unemployed.
  4. *Among those who indicated that they will probably vote for someone else, 13.33% were students, 5.56% were pensioners, 55.56% were employed and 25.56% were unemployed.
  5. *Among those who indicated that they are undecided, 19.51% were students, 53.66% were employed and 26.83% were unemployed.
  6. *For those who said they will not vote, 16.67% were students, 44.44% were employed and 38.89% were unemployed.

Top issues on voters’ mind when they make their choice of candidates

The survey shows the top three issues on voters’ mind when they go to the polls in December 2020 will be jobs as top priority (23.49%), followed by the economy (20.61%) and safety and security issues (20.34%). Health and education are next with 15.66% and 14.13% respectively. Power is least on voters’ priorities, recording only 5.76%.

Top issues by gender 

Female

  1. The survey shows top three issues on female voters’ mind when they go to the polls in December 2020 will be jobs as top priority (24.29%), followed by Safety and Security (22.7%) and Economy (17.73%). Health and Education are next with 15.78% and 14.36% respectively. Power is least on female voters’ priorities, recording only 5.14%. 

Male

The survey shows top three issues on male voters’ mind when they go to the polls in December 2020 will be jobs as top priority (24.29%), same as female, followed by Safety and Security (218.82%) and Economy (22.1%). Education and Health are next with 14.4% and 14.0% respectively. Power is the least, recording 6.35%.

The poll shows that the top issues do not really change with voters’ gender except for the level of strength, but the top three order is unchanged. However, female voters prioritized health over education compared to their male counterparts.

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