Do the Votes Favour the President in Adentan Constituency?

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A study was conducted recently by Global InfoAnalytics, an independent pollster, via face-to-face interview with respondents within the Adentan constituency to determine whether the country as a whole is moving in the right direction. Interviews were conducted from June 24th to 30th, 2019 among a sample of 382 respondents using a sophisticated App which enables Global InfoAnalytics to track live the GPS location of interviewers, date and time of the interview for quality control purposes. 

The survey was conducted in the following electoral areas of the constituency:  

Electoral Area Electoral AreaElectoral Area
Adenta East New Legon Fafraha 
Adenta West Ashiyie Amrahia 
Ashale BotweNmai Djorn Dzenayor 
Ogbojo AdjiringanorOtinshie 
Tesa   

Survey Methodology 

Sample size was selected using a sample calculator at 95% confidence level with a sampling error for total respondents of ±5%. The sample was then allocated to all the electoral areas within the constituency based on the adult population of the areas through quota system. Sample quota cannot be exceeded once the quota is reached using a sophisticated survey App which enabled live geolocation of the interviewers.

Summary of the Results 

In the 2016 presidential election, Nana Akuffo Addo won the Adentan constituency by 3.6% margin, thus making Adentan one of the many battleground constituencies to watch in 2020 (see Figure 1). The constituency thus qualifies to be classified as a battleground by Global InfoAnalytics for which quarterly tracking poll will be published.  

Figure 1 Adentan 2016 Presidential Elections Result

The polls reveal some fascinating facts almost two and half years into Nana Addo’s presidency. The survey of voters carried out in the constituency interviewed 146 female respondents, representing 38% and 236 male, representing 62%. 

Direction of the country 

Approximately 60% of voters in the Adentan constituency were of the view that the country is heading in the wrong direction compared to 40% who thought it is heading in the right direction (see Figure 2). Those who thought the country was heading in the right direction in the constituency were significantly higher than voters in Madina constituency, where in May 2019, only 29% thought the country was heading in the right direction.  

Figure 2 Direction of the country

When respondents’ gender was analysed, whilst approximately 64% of the female thought the country is heading in the wrong direction, only 36% thought it was heading in the right direction. With regards to the male, 57% were of the view that the country is heading in the wrong direction and 42% thought it was heading in the right direction. (see Figure 3) 

Figure 3 Direction of the country – by Gender

President’s Job Approval Rating 

The President enjoys the highest job approval rating so far from our polls in the Adentan constituency where about 42% of voters approved of his performance as President compared to 35% disapproval, with approximately 23% of voters saying they have no opinion (see Figure 4). Similar polls carried in Madina in May put the approval rating of the President at approximately 27%. The net favourability rating of the President in the Adentan constituency is +7% (Approve minus Disapprove). 

 ApproveDisapprove Spread
Global InfoAnalytics Average 42%35%+7%
Figure 4 President’s Job Approval Rating

Member of Parliament’s Job Approval Rating  

When voters were asked whether they approve or disapprove the job of the MP, an overwhelming majority, 52%, said they disapprove whilst 17% said they approve and 31% have no opinion on the performance of the MP, resulting in an approval spread of -35%. (see Figure 5)

Figure 5 Member of Parliament’s Job Approval Rating
 ApproveDisapprove Spread
Global InfoAnalytics Average 17%52%-35%

Voters’ Intention for 2020 

When voters were asked that if the elections were held today, would they vote to re-elect Nana Addo as president, approximately 34% of the respondents indicated that they will definitely or probably vote for him whilst 32% said they will definitely or probably vote for someone else.  24% of respondents said they don’t know who to vote for whilst 10% of the respondents said they will not vote at all. (see Figure 6)  

Figure 6 Voters Choice of Candidates in 2020 Polls

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