Recent polls conducted by Global InfoAnalytics for the Krowor Constituency in the Greater Accra region between July 8th and July 14th, 2019 reveal significant areas political parties have to target to win the 2020 elections, almost two and a half years into Nana Addo’s presidency. The study was carried out by Global InfoAnalytics, an independent pollster, via face-to-face interview among a sample of 382 respondents in the constituency. Surveys were conducted using a sophisticated App which enables Global InfoAnalytics to track live the GPS location of interviewers, date and time of the interview for quality control purposes.
The survey was conducted in the following electoral areas of the constituency:
|Electoral Area||Electoral Area||Electoral Area|
|Blekese East||Mukwedjor||Tsuibleoo Central|
|Blekese West||Nungua Police Station|
Sample size was selected using a sample calculator at 95% confidence level with a sampling error for total respondents of ±5%. The sample was then allocated to all the electoral areas within the constituency based on the adult population of the areas through quota system. Sample quota cannot be exceeded once the quota is reached using a sophisticated survey App which enabled live geolocation of the interviewers.
Summary of the Results
In the 2016 presidential election, Nana Akuffo Addo won the Krowor constituency by a margin of 4%. This constituency is one of the toss up seats with approximately 2,583 votes margin (see Figure 1). The inclusion of Krowor in the list of constituencies to be tracked by Global InfoAnalytics is to be able to model the effect of the polls from this constituency on similar constituencies where the ruling party has similar support.
The survey of voters carried out in the constituency interviewed 199 female respondents, representing 52% and 183 males, representing 48%.
The poll indicates that approximately 62% of voters in Krowor constituency are male and 38% are female (see Figure 2).
The poll indicates that approximately 71% of the voters in Krowor constituency are under the age of 40, a voting demography which all parties will have to appeal to if they are to win the elections in the constituency. (see Figure 3)
37% of female voters are under the age of 29 whilst 35% are between 30-39 years. In the case of male voters, 63% are between the ages of 18-29 whilst 65% are between 30-39. 72% of the female voters are under the age of 40 whereas that of the male is approximately 128%. (see Figure 4)
In the Krowor constituency, 65% of the voters have a minimum of Junior High education with 35% having no formal education at all. (see Figure 5)
Among those with Junior High education, 33% represent female whilst the male represents 22%. Among voters with Senior High education, the female represents approximately 24% whereas 28% are male. For those with tertiary education, the female represents approximately 6% whilst male is 13%. (see Figure 6). Political parties have to understand the needs and aspirations of these demography in order to appeal to them for their votes.
In the Krowor constituency, 55% of the voters have jobs compared to approximately 37% of the voters who are without jobs, whereas students represent 7% of the voters. (see Figure 7)
The Krowor constituency poll shows that approximately 54% of the males and 58% of the females have jobs. Among those who are unemployed, female represent 36% whilst male represents 36%. (see Figure 8)
Voters eligible to vote in the 2020 in the constituency represents 89% whilst approximately 11% are yet to register to vote. (see Figure 9)
Though almost 90% of the people polled shows they are registered to vote, only 61% have indicated that they will go to the polls in December 2020 to cast their ballot. 18% indicated that they are not sure if they will vote and 21% said they will not vote at all (see Figure 10). This suggests deeper voter apathy in the constituency running up to 2020 elections.
Combined Poll Results
Madina, Adentan, Ablekuma West and Krowor constituencies
- When the results of the four polls conducted in all the constituencies are combined, about 67% of the respondents were of the view that the country is heading in the wrong direction compared to 33% who thought it is heading in the right direction. (see Figure 11)
On job approval rating of the president, 36% of those polled approve of his job as president with approximately 41% disapproval. 23% of the respondents did not have an opinion on the performance of the president, resulting in overall performance approval of -5%. (see Figure 12)
On job approval rating of the Members of Parliament, only 18% of those polled approve of the job their MPs are doing with overwhelming 55% disapproving their performance and 27% of respondents did not have an opinion on their performance, resulting in an overall performance approval of -37%. (see Figure 13)
On the question of who voters in Madina, Adentan, Ablekuma West, and Krowor constituencies will vote for if the 2020 elections were held today, 31% indicated that they will definitely or probably vote for Nana Akuffo Addo as president, whilst 37% indicated they will definitely or probably vote for someone else as president. Approximately 20% of those polled said they do not know who they will vote for whilst 11% indicated that they will not vote at all. (see Figure 14)