An independent pollster, Global InfoAnalytics, conducted a study via face-to-face interview with respondents within the Ablekuma West constituency. Interviews were conducted from 1st to 7th July, 2019 among a sample of 382 respondents. Surveys were conducted using a sophisticated App which enables Global InfoAnalytics to track live the GPS location of interviewers, date and time of the interview for quality control purposes.
The survey was conducted in the following electoral areas of the constituency:
|Electoral Area||Electoral Area||Electoral Area|
Sample size was selected using a sample calculator at 95% confidence level with a sampling error for total respondents of ±5%. The sample was then allocated to all the electoral areas within the constituency based on the adult population of the areas through quota system. Sample quota cannot be exceeded once the quota is reached using a sophisticated survey App which enabled live geolocation of the interviewers.
Summary of the Results
In the 2016 presidential election, Nana Akuffo Addo won the Ablekuma West constituency by a margin of 25%. This constituency is one of the solid NPP seats with approximately 15,000 votes margin (see Figure 1). The inclusion of Ablekuma West in the list of constituencies to be tracked by Global InfoAnalytics is to be able to model the effect of the polls from this constituency on similar constituencies where the ruling party has similar support.
The recent polls conducted by Global InfoAnalytics for the constituency between July 1st and July 7th, 2019 reveals some matters of interest, almost two and half years into Nana Addo’s presidency. The survey of voters carried out in the constituency interviewed 199 female respondents representing 52% and 183 male representing 48%.
Direction of the country
Approximately 60% of voters in the Ablekuma West constituency were of the view that the country is heading in the wrong direction compared to 40% who thought it is heading in the right direction (see Figure 2). Those who thought the country was heading in the right direction in the constituency were significantly higher than voters in Madina constituency, where in May 2019, only 29% thought the country was heading in the right direction.
When respondents’ gender was analysed, approximately 63% of the female thought the country is heading in the wrong direction, whilst only 37% thought it was heading in the right direction. With regards to the male, 57% were of the view that the country is heading in the wrong direction and 43% thought it was heading in the right direction. (see Figure 3)
President’s Job Approval Rating
The President again enjoys the highest job approval rating so far from our polls in the Ablekuma West constituency where about 45% of voters approved of his performance as President compared to 35% disapproval with approximately 20% of voters saying they have no opinion (see Figure 4). The net favourability rating of the President in the Ablekuma West constituency is +9% (Approve minus Disapprove).
|Global InfoAnalytics Average||44.76%||35.34%||+9.42%|
Member of Parliament’s Job Approval Rating
When voters were asked whether they approve or disapprove the job the MP was doing, an overwhelming 59% said they disapprove whilst 17% said they approve and 24% have no opinion on the performance of the MP, resulting in an approval spread of -42%. (see Figure 5)
|Global InfoAnalytics Average||17%||59%||-42%|
Voters Intention for 2020
When voters were asked if the elections were held today, would they vote to re-elect Nana Addo as president, approximately 36% of the respondents indicated that they will definitely or probably vote for him whilst 25% said they will definitely or probably vote for someone else. 28% of respondents said they don’t know who to vote for whilst 11% of the respondents said they will not vote at all. (see Figure 6)