Focal Areas Political Parties Must Target to Win 2020 Elections in Ablekuma West

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NAKPAYILI, GHANA - 2016/12/07: People in the town of Nakpayili vote in the Presidential and Parliamentary election. (Photo by Louise Wateridge/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images)

Recent polls conducted by Global InfoAnalytics, an independent pollster, for the Ablekuma West constituency between July 1st and July 7th, 2019 reveal some matters of interest, almost two and a half years into Nana Addo’s presidency. The study was carried out via face-to-face interview with respondents within the constituency. Interviews were conducted among a sample of 382 respondents using a sophisticated App which enables Global InfoAnalytics to track live the GPS location of interviewers, date and time of the interview for quality control purposes. 

The survey was conducted in the following electoral areas of the constituency:  

Electoral AreaElectoral AreaElectoral Area
Old Dansoman Zodiac Gbegbeyise 
Mpoase Shiabu Glefe 
DansomanMamponse Sukura

Survey Methodology 

Sample size was selected using a sample calculator at 95% confidence level with a sampling error for total respondents of ±5%. The sample was then allocated to all the electoral areas within the constituency based on the adult population of the areas through quota system. Sample quota cannot be exceeded once the quota is reached using a sophisticated survey App which enabled live geolocation of the interviewers.

Summary of the Results 

In the 2016 presidential election, Nana Akuffo Addo won the Ablekuma West constituency by a margin of 25%. This constituency is one of the solid NPP seats with approximately 15,000 votes margin. The inclusion of Ablekuma West in the list of constituencies to be tracked by Global InfoAnalytics is to be able to model the effect of the polls from this constituency on similar constituencies where the ruling party has similar support.

Key Highlights

Demography 

The poll indicates that approximately 52% of voters in Ablekuma West constituency are male and 48% are female (see Figure 1).

Figure 1 Voters Demography- by Gender

The poll shows that approximately 76% of the voters in Ablekuma West constituency are under the age of 40, a voting demography which all parties will have to appeal to if they are to win the elections in the constituency. (see Figure 2)

Figure 2 Voters Demography – by Age Group

54% of female voters are under the age of 29 whilst 51% are between 30-39 years. In the case of male voters, 46% are between the ages of 18-29 whilst 49% are between 30-39. (see Figure 3)

Figure 3 Voters Demography- Age and Gender

Approximately 65% of the voters in Ablekuma West constituency have a minimum of Junior High education with 35% having no formal education at all. (see Figure 4)

Figure 4 Voters Demography – by Educational Level

Among those with Junior High education, approximately 31% represent female whilst the male represents 22%. Among voters with Senior High, the female represents approximately 27% whilst 34% are male. For those with tertiary education, the female represents 7% whilst male is 10%. The constituency also has the higher proportion of female with no formal education compared to males, 54% and 46% respectively (see Figure 5). Political parties have to understand the needs and aspirations of these demography in order to appeal to them for their votes.

Figure 5 Voters Demography- Gender by Education

Approximately 69% of the voters in Ablekuma West constituency have jobs (Madina 58%) compared to approximately 21% who are without jobs whilst students represent approximately 10%. (see Figure 6)

Figure 6 Voters Demography by Employment Status

The poll shows that 69% of the males and 68% of the females have jobs. With regard to those who are unemployed, females are represented by 18% whilst males are represented by 24% (see Figure 7). This suggests that women bear the brunt of hardship where joblessness persist. 

Figure 7 Voters Demography- By Gender and Employment Status

Voters eligible to vote in the 2020 elections in the constituency represents 90% whilst approximately 10% are yet to register to vote. (see Figure 8)

Figure 8 Registered or None Registered Voters

Though over 90% of the people polled shows they are registered to vote, only 65% have indicated that they will go to the polls in December 2020 to cast their ballot. 23.04% indicated that they are not sure if they will vote and 12.04% said they will not vote at all (see Figure 9). This suggests deeper voter apathy in the constituency running up to 2020 elections.

Figure 9 Likely Voters

Combined Poll Results – Ablekuma West, Madina and Adentan constituencies

When the results of the three polls conducted in all constituencies are combined, about 64% of the respondents were of the view that the country is heading in the wrong direction compared to 36% who thought it is heading in the right direction. (see Figure 10)

Figure 10 Combined Polls – Ablekuma West, Adentan and Madina – Direction of the Country

On job approval rating of the President, approximately 38% of those polled approved of his job as president with approximately 39% disapproval. 23% of the respondents did not have opinion on his performance, resulting in overall performance approval of -1%. (see Figure 11)

Figure 11 Combined Polls – Ablekuma West, Adentan and Madina – President’s Job Approval Rating

On job approval rating of the Members of Parliament, only 18.15% of those polled approved of the job their MPs are doing with overwhelming 54.80% disapproving their performance and 27.05% of respondents did not have opinion on their performance, resulting in overall performance approval of -36.65%. (see Figure 12)

Figure 12 Combined Polls – Ablekuma West, Adentan and Madina – MPs Job Approval Rating

On the overall question of who voters in Ablekuma West, Madina and Adentan constituencies will vote for if the 2020 elections were held today, 33% indicated that they will definitely or probably vote for Nana Akuffo Addo as president, whilst 38% indicated they will definitely or probably vote for someone else. Approximately 21% of those polled did not have opinion on who they will vote for whilst 9% indicated that they will not vote all. (see Figure 13)

Figure 13 Combined Polls -Ablekuma West, Adentan and Madina – Voters Choice of Candidates

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