A poll carried out between 17th – 19th January 2020 shows President Nana Addo enjoying massive job approval, whilst the incumbent MP and Majority leader, Hon. Osei Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu seems very unpopular in the constituency with more than half of voters saying he does not deserve to be re-elected to represent them in the next parliament.
The poll shows that if the MP goes unopposed, voter apathy in the constituency could increase significantly which could affect the NPP’s chances of winning the 2020 elections.
President’s Approval Rating
On his performance as president, the poll shows that Nana Addo enjoys 69.3% approval whilst only 23.4% disapprove the way he is handling his job as president, resulting in a net favourability of +46%. Only 7.3% of voters said they have no opinion about his performance.
Member of Parliament’s Job Approval Rating
According to the poll, the incumbent MP and majority leader Hon. Osei Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu is approved by only 26% of voters whilst overwhelming 64% disapprove his performance as an MP. 10% of voters indicated they have no opinion on his performance, resulting in a net favourability rating of -38%.
Voters dislike for the incumbent who is also the majority speaker of parliament, is further expressed when they were asked if they think their MP deserves to be re-elected. The poll shows only 17% of voters intend to vote for the MP compared to a majority of 58% who intend to vote out the sitting MP.
The poll also shows that approximately 65.4% of voters believe Ghana is heading in the right direction compared to 34.6% who think it is heading in the wrong direction. This is in sharp contrast to polls from Greater Accra, Western Region and Central Region where over half of the voters think the country is heading in the wrong direction.
Voters choice of president in 2020
On the question of who they will vote for in the 2020 election, the poll shows that 52.6% of voters will definitely/probably vote for Nana Addo as president whilst only 6% of voters will definitely/probably prefer John Mahama. Approximately 4% of voters will consider voting for someone. Approximately 26% of voters in the constituency are yet to decide who to vote for in December 2020. 12% of voters said they will not vote in December 2020.
Remarkably, 84.4% of NPP supporters intend to vote for Nana Addo, whilst only 70% of NDC supporters back John Mahama, come December 2020. In the case of undecided voters, only 9% of NPP supporters are undecided compared to 10% of the NDC. 30% of floating voters in the constituency are undecided whilst 61.7% of voters who support other parties other than the main parties said they are undecided.
A deeper insight of the survey revealed that, whilst 74.3% of voters who voted for Nana Addo in 2016 elections indicated that they will vote for him again in December 2020, only 64.7% of those who voted for Mahama in 2016 said they will vote for him again in 2020. A clear evidence of the challenges the former president faces in the region.
For voters crossing over to vote for candidates other than the one they voted for in 2016 election, only 2.8% of voters who voted for Nana Addo in 2016 have indicated that they will vote for John Mahama whilst 5.9% of voters who voted for John Mahama intend to vote for Nana Addo in 2020 elections. This is the only region polled so far that Nana Addo has advantage over John Mahama. In the case of undecided voters, 18% of voters who voted for NDC in 2016 are undecided compared to only 13.6% for Nana Addo.
This Poll was conducted with a sample size of 384 at a 95% confidence level and ±5% margin of error. The sample were allocated proportionately to all the electoral areas of the constituency and voters were randomly selected for the interview.