Final National Tracking Poll – Elections 2020

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The final public opinion poll published by Global InfoAnalytics, an independent pollster, via face-to-face interview with respondents across the country showed that the incumbent, President Nana Addo Dankwa Akuffo Addo leading into the final weeks of the 2020 elections campaign as 50.4% of voters support his bid to be re-elected as the president for 2021. The poll which was conducted between 14-22November 2020 with a sample of 5,199 with a margin of error of 1.989% at 99% confidence interval.  The poll found his main challenger, His Excellency former president John Mahama with 34.9% support with Christian Kwabena Andrews of GUM with approximately 2.1% of the votes, whilst the rest of the field attracting 1.9%. Undecided voters according to the poll represent 6.8% and 3.9% of voters said they will not vote.

 

  
Data Collection14th – 22nd Nov. 2020
Sample size5,199
Margin of error+-1.989 %
Constituencies polled84
Constituencies polled31%
Electoral areas polled94 out of 6,272
NPP seats polled54
NDC seats polled30

The allocation of sample was first distributed based on regional voters’ population and then allocated to electoral areas randomly selected from the region on the basis of total registered voters in the electoral area.

S/N.Region2020 Voters Register         5,200
1AHAFO                315,827              97
2ASHANTI             3,013,856           924
3BONO                592,015           181
4BONO EAST                648,408           199
5CENTRAL             1,566,061           480
6EASTERN             1,628,180           499
7GREATER ACCRA             3,509,805        1,076
8NORTH EAST                288,393              88
9NORTHERN             1,047,539           321
10OTI                353,492           108
11SAVANNAH                295,648              91
12UPPER EAST                653,730           200
13UPPER WEST                470,271           144
14VOLTA                929,322           285
15WESTERN             1,185,315           363
16WESTERN NORTH                465,444           141
TOTAL     16,963,306        5,199

President’s Approval Rating

The poll found 58% of voters approving the job performance of the president with 28% disapproval and 14% indicating they have no opinion (see Figure 1).

Figure 1 Approval Rating

Direction of the Country

On the question of direction of the country’s direction, 60% of voters believe the country is heading in the right direction whilst 40% said it was heading in the wrong direction (see Figure 2).

Figure 2: Direction of the country

Priority Issues for Voters

Education has emerged as top issue that matter to voters with 29%, followed by economy with 27% and jobs with 21%. Infrastructure came distance forth with 7%, followed by corruption with 5%. The sudden rise of education compared to our July 2020 poll was fuelled by first time voters who see education as top priority compared to non-first-time voters (see Figure 3)

Figure 3: Voters priorities for 2020

First-time voters  

A key constituent for the president remains first-time voters as he leads in that demographic by 22.6% compared to all voters 13.7%. As the poll shows, the most unreliable voters globally are first-time young voters. Whilst they solidly back the president, they could be the source of his headache if they fail to show up to vote as the poll suggest his 50.4% of polling numbers is significantly driven by the support he enjoys from this group (see Figure 4).  

Figure 4: First-Time Voters V other voters and their support for each candidate

Turnout

Analysis of data also suggests that turnout among first-time voters is lower than that of the other voters as the poll suggest 82.3% of voters who are not first time voters indicated that they are certain or very likely to vote in the December 2020 elections. For first-time voters, the turnout is estimated to be 77.9%, representing 4.4% lower than that of other voters. The burden for the NPP is how to mobilize this demographic who are already expected to have lower turnout in the elections to go to their various polling stations to vote when they registered at their various schools in all the regions (see Figure 5).

Figure 5: Turnout for first time voters V other voters

Potential to change minds

The poll also saw a sizeable proportion of voters backing all the candidates saying they could change their mind on who they intend to vote for before the elections. Focusing on the two leading candidates, 15.9% of voters supporting John Mahama said they could change their mind, compared to 13.4% for Nana (see Figure 6).

Figure 6: Voters categories

In the key swing region of Central, 28.6% of Nana Addo’s supporters said they could change their mind compared to 14.3% for John Mahama and 28.6% of voters who said they will not vote indicated they could change their mind (see Figure 7).

Figure 7: Changing voters mind Central region

Influence of Prof. Jane Naana Opoku-Agyeman on the national election

The poll found 27% of voters indicating that they will definitely vote for the NDC because of Prof. Jane Naana Opoku-Agyeman, whilst 29% of voters said they may vote for the NDC because of her. However, 43% of voters said they will not be influenced by her nomination (see Figure 8).

Figure 8: Influence of Jane Naana Opoku-Agyeman

Underperformance of John Mahama and the NDC in the national poll

Using a complex data analytics tool and information gather from the field, Global InfoAnalytics has seen evidence from the poll suggesting that His Excellency John Mahama’s support is significantly higher than the headline poll suggests.

Using triangulating questions, Global InfoAnalytics were able to identify voters whose earlier answers indicated they will vote for John Mahama but chose other candidates when they were confronted with the of who they will vote for if the December elections were held today. Data from the analytics suggest that 25.11% of voters who said they will vote for the NDC ended voting for Nana Addo when they were confronted with the question about who they will vote for at the end of the poll. Nana Addo’s 50.4% support in the headline poll is propelled by 13.5% of these voters (see Figure 9).

Figure 9: Estimated proportion of voters voting for other candidates instead of John Mahama

The chart below shows the proportion of in various part of the country who were detected to have been economical with the truth and have voted for Nana Addo instead of John Mahama:

  • Swing Regions (Greater Accra, Central and Western and Western North)
  • Middle belt: Ashanti, Eastern, Bono, Bono East and Ahafo
  • Northern: Northern Regions (Northern, North East, Savannah, Upper West and Upper East
  • Volta and Oti

Further analysis suggests than voters who said they were definitely going to be influenced by the nomination of Jane Naana Opoku-Agyeman disapprove the job of the president by 48.7, 17.6% of them approve his performance and 21.7% said they had no opinion (see Figure 10).

Figure 10: Influence of Prof. Jane Naana V President’s Approval Rating

Among voters who said they will be influenced by her nomination, 41.6% of them thought the country was heading in the wrong direction. Only 17.6% of them thought the country is heading in the right direction (see Figure 11). 

Figure 11: Influence of Prof. Jane Naana Opoku-Agyeman direction of the country

On the basis of the above revelations, Global InfoAnalytics has developed four predictive models showing range of possible outcomes for the 2020 presidential elections. The predictions rely on three key variables, namely the headline poll, adjustment for John Mahama’s support for voters detected to have been economical with the truth and the estimation of breakout of undecided voters.

Results of the headline poll

Scenario 1: Adjustment to JM’s support for economically untruthful voters

Scenario 2: Adjustment to JM’s support for economically untruthful voters and JM attracting majority of undecided voters as a result of bad publicity for the incumber with 45.5% breakout margin.

Scenario 3: Adjustment to JM’s support for economically untruthful voters and JM attracting slender majority of undecided voters as a result of bad publicity for the incumbent by just 5.5% breakout margin.

Scenario 4: Adjustment to JM’s support for economically untruthful voters and Nana Addo backed by majority of undecided voters if the bad publicity for the incumbent fails to have any impact by 34.5% breakout margin

The above scenarios have not accounted for any of the voters who said they may vote for NDC because of the nomination of Professor Jane Naana Opoku-Agyeman but voted for Nana Addo in the end.

For the race in Greater Accra, our analytics suggests that the new voters register compiled in the middle of a pandemic may create havoc for the ruling party in region as voters from the Volta region who stayed and registered in Greater Accra may end up deciding majority of the seats in the region. Deeper analysis of the data also suggests that the incumbent is wining in 4 out of the 12 constituencies polled as shown in the table below.

CandidatesConstituencies
 Ablekuma WestAdentaAyawaso NorthAyawao West WuogonDome KwabenyaKorley KlotteyKroworMadinaOkai Kwei NorthOkai Kwei SouthTema WestWeija
J. Mahama59.6%56.9%48.6%52.9%39.7%45.7%47.2%52.3%27.0%24.4%22.0%44.2%
N. Addo27.5%36.6%40.0%32.4%57.3%38.0%40.4%45.2%73.0%59.8%60.0%34.6%
Undecided5.5%02.9%5.9%1.5%7.6%3.4%0%0%6.1%2.0%5.8%

The poll also found the following constituencies with significant proportion of voters who intend to vote skirt and blouse in the coming elections.

  • Ayawaso West Wuogon 79.4%
  • Korley Klottey 68.5%
  • Okai Kwei South, 95.1%
  • Tema West 88.0%
  • Weija, 17.8%
  • Conclusion
  1. The underlying polling numbers will be influenced significantly by whether voters have been truthful with their responses.
  2. Whether the recent bad publicity will force voters who are not firm with their choices to change their minds
  3. Whether the bad publicity will have any impact on undecided and how they breakout for the various candidates.
  4. Whether the turnout of first-time voters will be at the level needed to deliver a win to the incumbent, President Nana Addo.

For more information, comprehensive report on this poll or question, please contact Global InfoAnalytics Limited on 0242 252 824/ 0541 222 634 or email  enquiries@battlegroundpolls.com or m.dankwah@globalinfoanalytics.com

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