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National Tracking Poll Methodology

Methodology and Approach

Research methology

Analysis of the report is based on Likely Voters Model. Voters who indicated they will not vote were excludes from the overall analysis of the for the primaries and general elections headtohead. Comparative analysis for the poll was adjusted to reflect Likely Voters only.
Sample Size: Polling Methodology 5,490
Confidence Interval: Margin of Error: 99% MoE of ± 1.737%
Population of voters in the 75 constituencies Sampling Method 4,877,028
75 constituencies were selected randomly using simulation model.Out of the 75 constituencies randomly selected, 41 were won by the NPP and 34 were won by the NDC in the 2020 general elections.

Sampling Frame

  • 1- The 2020 Electoral Commissions voters’ register was used as a sampling frame for the purpose of allocating sample size to each constituency.

  • 2- Allocation of sample was based on the total registered voters in the constituencies relative to the 75 constituencies selected.

  • 3 - For each constituency selected, the location for the interview was Polling Methodology also selected randomly from three Electoral Areas of the constituency.
  • Fieldwork

    Data collection was carried out in the field using survey app and result is transmitted to the cloud in real-time except where there is network challenges,in which case an offline system was used and uploaded when connection was restored.
    Demographic analysis: Demographic analysis of the poll will have higher margin or error.
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